The Federal Reserve hit pause again and left the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%. For a lot of people in housing, that was disappointing but not shocking. There was some hope that weak job growth over the last year would finally be enough to push the Fed toward a cut. Instead, the Fed made it clear that inflation risk is still the bigger concern.

One reason is energy. Oil has moved sharply higher as the Iran war disrupted production and shipping across the Middle East. When oil spikes, that matters far beyond the gas pump. Energy touches nearly every part of the economy, from transportation and manufacturing to food distribution and consumer goods. Reuters also reported that the war has tightened fertilizer supply just as spring planting season ramps up, adding another layer of inflation risk that the Fed cannot ignore.

Inflation itself is still not where the Fed wants it. The latest Personal Income and Outlays report showed January PCE inflation at 2.8% year over year, with core PCE at 3.1%. On a monthly basis, headline PCE rose 0.3% and core rose 0.4%. That is better than the worst inflation readings from the last few years, but it is still above the Fed’s 2% target and high enough to keep policymakers cautious.

That is the problem for mortgage rates right now. Even if parts of the economy look softer, the Fed is still dealing with sticky inflation and fresh geopolitical pressure coming from oil and fertilizer. That combination makes rate cuts harder to justify in the near term. The March projections reinforce that idea, with the Fed still signaling only limited room for easing rather than a fast pivot lower.

For homebuyers, hoping for a quick drop in mortgage rates may not be the best plan. Rates have backed up from their recent lows, but they are still better than many of the levels buyers dealt with over the last few years. In other words, this is not a perfect market, but it is not the worst market either. Waiting for the “perfect” rate could mean missing a home that actually fits your budget and goals.

The bigger takeaway is that the market is being pulled in two directions at once. Slower growth and weaker labor trends would normally argue for lower rates. Rising oil, fertilizer pressure, and sticky core inflation argue the other way. Right now, the inflation side carries more weight with the Fed, which is why policy stayed unchanged.

So what should buyers do? Focus less on trying to predict the next Fed move and more on whether the home, payment, and overall plan work for you. If the payment is solid, the house fits your needs, and you are prepared, being decisive still matters. In many areas, buyers are still dealing with limited inventory and seller leverage, so the best opportunities tend to go to people who are ready to act.

This is one of those markets where strategy matters more than headlines. A lot of people are waiting for obvious good news. By the time the news feels obvious, the opportunity is often smaller. That is why buyers should stay informed, stay realistic, and stay ready.