Mortgage rates just moved higher again, and a lot of buyers are asking the same question: why are rates going up if some inflation data looked a little better?

The answer is that the market is not watching just one number. It is watching the full picture.

This week gave buyers a little bit of everything. Oil prices surged from roughly 67 to 119, dropped back to 82, then pushed back over 100 before settling around 96, all within about two weeks as the Iran war shocked the energy market. That matters because higher oil prices are inflationary. Even when one inflation report looks somewhat better, energy prices can quickly change the outlook and make it harder for the Fed to cut rates.

Growth data also got softer. Q4 GDP was revised down to 0.7% from 1.4%, and 2025 growth is running at a 2.1% pace with one more revision still ahead. January durable goods were basically flat, ex-defense orders rose 0.5%, core capital goods orders were flat, and core shipments, which feed into GDP, slipped 0.1%. That is not the kind of data that points to a strong and accelerating economy. It is the kind of data that can open the door to weaker growth revisions.

Then there is inflation. PCE, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, came in a little lighter on the headline side. January PCE moved down to 2.8% year over year while core PCE came in at 3.1%. Month over month, PCE rose 0.3% and core rose 0.4%. So yes, headline inflation cooled a bit, but core inflation is still sticky and still too high for comfort. Both are still above January 2024 when Trump took office, when headline was 2.5% and core was 2.6%.

That pressure showed up in mortgages quickly. Mortgage-backed securities dropped from 100.49 to 98.77, about a 172 basis point hit in just 10 days. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average moved from 5.98% on February 26 to 6.11% on March 13, and rates are still pressing higher. While that is still better than some recent stretches, buyers are now right back near the upper ranges seen in September, October, and December of last year.

Now all eyes turn to the Fed meeting. The Fed has a difficult decision to make. On one side, oil and sticky inflation argue against cutting too soon. On the other side, GDP was revised lower, durable goods were soft, job growth has been weak, and the broader economy has been more sluggish than encouraging. A Fed cut could help change that trend, but the big question is whether they are willing to move while oil-driven inflation risks are still hanging over the market.

Bottom line, the market is being pulled in two different directions, and mortgage rates are catching the brunt of it. Oil is shouting inflation. Growth data is flashing slowdown. That means volatility is back, and buyers should not assume rates are guaranteed to improve next week. The better move is to have a plan, know your payment, and be ready to act when the home and numbers make sense.